# Geopolítica

Indo-Pak Conflict: What Next?

Two nuclear power nations are in an eyeball to eyeball for past one month since 40 CRPF personnel were  killed in a suicide terror attack in J & K region of India.India launched an air strike at several places inside Pakistani territory which killed 350 terrorists as per Government of India version while Pakistan says there was no causality but it was only to provoke Pakistan in to a war. There after an Indian Airforce Pilot was captured while he parachuted inside Pakistani territory after hitting a Pakistan F-16 jet fighter and then was released due to much diplomatic pressure over Pakistan. There is still shelling and cross firing on borders which has resulted the situation to be tensed.

India and Pakistan has fought four full or small scale wars since India and Pakistan were bifurcated from undivided India at the time of independence from British in 1947. Two full scale wars has been fought in 1965 and 1971. Bangladesh was created as independent country as outcome of 1971 war from East Pakistan. 1947 and 1999 can be termed as semi wars when Pakistani Army intruded and infiltrated inside Kashmir region.An independent state at that time in 1947,the then Maharaja of Hari Singh signed an accord with then Prime Minsiter of India Jawahar Lal Nehru to give armed support after which he agreed for annexation of Kashmir in to India.Indian Army personnel were airdropped to fight out Pakistani intruders and they did so successfully and Kashmir became an integral part of India since then.In 1999 another semi scale war was fought between the two countries termed as Kargil War. In all four war Pakistan had to pull back either due to insufficient resources or due to international pressure.

In current scenario India and Pakistan are not the same countries which they were a 25 years back.Both have developed nuclear arsenals. Pakistani and Indian Army has upgraded itself.While Indian Armed Forces are seven time larger to Pakistan in each area,Pakistan also have capability to strike India.Its been one month both countries have engaged each other and have sent warning signals. Any provocation by either side may result into a long or short term armed conflict or even war which may destabilize this subcontinent. But a larger section in India believes that its time when Indian government must take a decisive action against terrorists and its believed that terrorists acting in India get all support from Pakistan including their training in base camps for as long as one year. A larger section also believe that India have all rights to protect its borders and citizens from terrorist who have killed millions of people since independence due to support from Pakistan.

The point which must be noted that India and Pakistan have already lost nearly 15 million people during migration from both sides at the time of partition. Clearly British had palyed a clevel political game while they were forced to leave the country after two hundred years of rule and suppression in subcontinent.

Ratnesh Dwivedi Institutional Representative of SECINDEF (Security Intelligence and Defense) Israel-USA International Consulting Counterterrorism in the India and collaborating analyst of OCATRY (Observatory against the Terrorist Threat and the Jihadist Radicalization) Scholar,Amity School of Communication,Amity University,Uttar Pradesh,India. Journalist / Acdemic / Writer and NASA Certified Educator